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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Aug 11, 2023, at 1:43 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“this means there's still a chance that we see another rate hike or two by the end of the year”
Watch at 1:43A Grim Warning For All Investors
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseby Dec 31, 2023
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5.5%

Aug 11, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Aug 10, 2024

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 10, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242024Said on Aug 11, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232024Said on Aug 11, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Sep 10, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Nov 9, 20230.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Feb 7, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Aug 10, 20240.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%3.75%Aug 10, 2026−1.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 9, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Dec 31, 20230.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 10, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Nov 9, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 7, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 10, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 10, 2026, a net change of −1.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 9, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 31, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

going up it was less than a jump than expected so it's overall kind of good news but it is worth noting that this is the first jump in inflation since the peak of 2022. of course in terms of where this inflation is coming from it's certainly not an energy prices because that's down 12 and a half percent year over year and use car prices are down 1.3 percent in the last month although the real driver of inflation today is coming in the form of shelter meaning how much you're paying for housing and rent and that is still up 7.7 percent from a year ago this means there's still a chance that we see another rate hike or two by the end of the year although we're probably not going to have that much of an indication if that's going to be the case until the next fed meeting which is scheduled for September 20th but in terms of how this is going to impact the the stock markets you're going to want to hear this first of all in terms of the bare case for stocks we got to talk about the U.S credit downgrade because in a way this became the Catalyst to our recent descent downwards see for those unaware since the United States largely operates and functions off borrowed money their issued a credit

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed