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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Nov 7, 2024, at 11:41 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“all of this suggests that we're probably going to see one more rate cut throughout the end of the year most likely to the tune of 25 basis points”
Watch at 11:41URGENT: Trump Wins, Federal Reserve Cuts Rates, Stocks Hit All-Time High!
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5%

Nov 7, 2024

Reading at close

4%

Nov 7, 2025

Change

−1.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 7, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420252026Said on Nov 7, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202320242026Said on Nov 7, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct5%4.75%Dec 7, 2024−0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct5%4.5%Feb 5, 2025−0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct5%4.5%May 6, 2025−0.50 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5%4%Nov 7, 2025−1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Nov 7, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Nov 6, 2029——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct5%4.5%Dec 31, 2024−0.50 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 7, 2024, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Feb 5, 2025, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 6, 2025, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 7, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 7, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 6, 2029.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2024, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

12,000 jobs were added in the month of September and even though unemployment is still incredibly low all things considered it's still something it's going to take a lot more observation over the coming few months especially since employment is on a downtrend besides all of this though Jerome Powell ended up giving more of the same which is basically that their goal is to maintain price stability that they're monitoring the labor market and that they're going to make all decisions based on the data that they get at the time all of this suggests that we're probably going to see one more rate cut throughout the end of the year most likely to the tune of 25 basis points although in terms of my own thoughts about this and what you could do especially since we're around an election here's what you need to know look when it comes to the terrible jobs numbers honestly they could probably be chocked up to Major hurricanes and Strikes but it is worthwhile to reiterate that employment numbers are trending lower and if this continues we're most likely going to see a series of rate Cuts throughout 2025 as a way to spark up the economy but even beyond that we also have the topic of Elections now even

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed