Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Dec 8, 2023, at 4:02 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“and they'll have to lower interest rates as many as five times next year they'll be forced to start q and the buying up of assets AKA printing money which is beneficial for Bitcoin and any asset that has a fixed limited Supply”
Watch at 4:02How High Will Bitcoin Go In 2024?
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Dec 8, 2023

Reading at close

4.75%

Dec 7, 2024

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 7, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Dec 8, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Dec 8, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jan 7, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Mar 7, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jun 5, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.75%Dec 7, 2024−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 7, 2026——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 6, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Dec 31, 2024−1.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 7, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 7, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 5, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 7, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 7, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 6, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2024, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

Landing or for the us to go into a deep recession and that's where bitcoin's prediction of what happens next comes in any story you can come up with right now always ends up in more Fed rate Cuts it's it's quite amazing if the economy really weakens then the pressure will increase on the FED to do something and what can they do more rate cuts and eventually go into QE so the market is predicting if the economy slows down which is exactly what it's doing the fed's hand will be forced and they'll have to lower interest rates as many as five times next year they'll be forced to start q and the buying up of assets AKA printing money which is beneficial for Bitcoin and any asset that has a fixed limited Supply Now The Economist also says that even if the economy gets way stronger they'll still have to lower interest rates and that's because if they don't it could cause a classic recession thanks to the business cycle the rising cost of debt and higher unemployment which is what we're seeing now even if the economy were to strengthen right now and bond yields would rise it would threaten the nas recovery in the housing market it would potentially start the classic recession style domino effect

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed