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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Feb 2, 2026, at 14:03 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“my personal take is that there is no way he's not going to lower interest rates and basically do what Trump tells him to do.”
Watch at 14:03It Started: Trump Just ‘Broke’ The Federal Reserve – Gold, Silver, Bitcoin Collapses
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Incorrect so far · 180 days

Reading when said

3.75%

Feb 2, 2026

Reading at close

3.75%

Aug 1, 2026

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 3.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 1, 2026, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%202320232024202520262027Said on Feb 2, 2026
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%2023202420252027Said on Feb 2, 2026

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect3.75%3.75%Mar 4, 20260.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect3.75%3.75%May 3, 20260.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect3.75%3.75%Aug 1, 20260.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Pending——Feb 2, 2027——
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 1, 2029——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 1, 2031——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 3.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 4, 2026, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 3.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on May 3, 2026, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 3.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 1, 2026, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 2, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 1, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 1, 2031.

What was said around it

have been able to have done that otherwise. The same occurred in 2020. I was buying into the S&P 500 index funds on YouTube videos when it was trading at 2,300. Then again in 2022 when the markets crashed to 3600, I was buying I was buying Bitcoin when it was 16,000. I was buying it when it was 30,000, 50,000, 110,000 and again at $75,000. To me, as long as I don't need the money in the next few years, I keep buying because whatever it is doesn't matter if I don't need the money right now. Beyond that though, in terms of Kevin Worsh, my personal take is that there is no way he's not going to lower interest rates and basically do what Trump tells him to do. And I think the market's overreacting. Like, be real for a second. Trump could appoint anyone he wants as the head of the Federal Reserve. He wanted to get rid and fire Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates as fast as he would have liked. You don't think he'd actually select someone who would do the opposite of what Trump wants him to do, right? Now, I'm not saying Kevin Worsh is going to blindly follow orders on a minute's notice, but I'm also saying that most likely they are aligned. They have the same objectives and the same

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed