“With futures contracts currently showing a 52% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year,”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
Said on Apr 9, 2026, at 3:02 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
settle at just 2.7% over the exact same time frame. That 150 basis point gap between two major financial authorities is not some minor statistical rounding error, but the difference between an uncomfortable economic landing and a genuine stagflation crisis that destroys the purchasing power of everyday users. If the OECD's projections prove accurate, well, the Federal Reserve is sitting dangerously behind the curve and will be forced into emergency policy reversals and the broader market is already pricing in this exact scenario. With futures contracts currently showing a 52% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year, the underlying economic data reveals exactly why the Fed is trapped in a genuine dual mandate nightmare. Recent employment reports showed a devastating loss of 92,000 jobs in February alone, marking the fourth monthly decline in 9 months. Simultaneously, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged by 14% following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. When you combine rising energydriven inflation with a rapidly weakening labor market, you have the exact textbook conditions for a stagflation crisis. And speaking
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026