The economy

Economic predictions, checked

What was predicted about house prices, interest rates, inflation, recessions and market crashes, checked against the published series.

Economic series are read from FRED, a database run by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that republishes other publishers' figures, and each is shown with its publisher. Figures are taken as first published, not as later revised. Recessions are as dated by the NBER. Market crashes are measured on the S&P 500.

Each card counts the channels' own calls about its topic, and their results at 1 year. A call repeated in a later video counts again, so these counts can differ from a channel's record, which counts each distinct call once.

House prices

110 calls

Not charted until its publisher's terms are confirmed.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

At 1 year: 14 correct · 14 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 5 within band · 5 open

Fed policy rate

106 calls

4%level · Nov 2026

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED

At 1 year: 48 correct · 8 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 0 within band · 2 open

Market crash

82 calls

$754.35S&P 500 (SPY) · Nov 2026

At 1 year: 3 correct · 4 incorrect · 7 partly correct · 0 within band · 2 open

Interest rates

78 calls

4%level · Nov 2026

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED

At 1 year: 12 correct · 10 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 0 within band · 1 open

Inflation

70 calls

3.68%year on year · Sep 2026

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED

At 1 year: 30 correct · 13 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 3 within band · 1 open

Recession

67 calls

No recessionNBER · Oct 2026

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED

At 1 year: 0 correct · 21 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 0 within band · 5 open

Market correction

35 calls

$754.35S&P 500 (SPY) · Nov 2026

At 1 year: 7 correct · 1 incorrect · 4 partly correct · 0 within band · 1 open

Housing crash

27 calls

Not charted until its publisher's terms are confirmed.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

At 1 year: 12 correct · 2 incorrect · 2 partly correct · 0 within band · 4 open

Mortgage rates

15 calls

7.24%level · Oct 2026

30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED

At 1 year: 2 correct · 1 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 1 within band · 2 open

GDP

14 calls

5.73%quarterly growth, annualised · Jul 2026

Real GDP: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED

At 1 year: 0 correct · 0 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 0 within band · 0 open

Unemployment

12 calls

4.2%level · Sep 2026

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED

At 1 year: 1 correct · 2 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 4 within band · 0 open

Bubble burst

8 calls

$754.35S&P 500 (SPY) · Nov 2026

At 1 year: 0 correct · 0 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 0 within band · 0 open

Median house price

3 calls

$393,300level · Jul 2026

Median sales price of houses sold: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD via FRED

At 1 year: 1 correct · 0 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 0 within band · 0 open

Technical recession

3 calls

5.73%quarterly growth, annualised · Jul 2026

Real GDP: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED

At 1 year: 0 correct · 0 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 0 within band · 0 open

Yield curve

1 call

0.34 pplevel · Nov 2026

10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED

At 1 year: 0 correct · 0 incorrect · 0 partly correct · 0 within band · 0 open