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Joseph Carlson: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Aug 25, 2023, at 4:16 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“Jerome Pal has been incredibly consistent this entire time. He will raise rates until inflation goes back down to 2%.”
Watch at 4:16The Most Overvalued Stock In The Market | Joseph Carlson Ep. 342
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5.5%

Aug 25, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Aug 24, 2024

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 24, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242024Said on Aug 25, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232024Said on Aug 25, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Sep 24, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Nov 23, 20230.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Feb 21, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Aug 24, 20240.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%3.75%Aug 24, 2026−1.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 23, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 24, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Nov 23, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 21, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 24, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 24, 2026, a net change of −1.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 23, 2028.

What was said around it

restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down towards our objective." That was the scary thing that drone pal said, the exact same thing that he's been saying for the past 2 years and the exact same thing that anyone sane would expect him to say. that inflation is still too high because it's not at his target of 2%. And that they're prepared to raise rates further to lower inflation. That was it. If anybody believed that he was going to say anything different, then they must not be paying attention. Jerome Pal has been incredibly consistent this entire time. He will raise rates until inflation goes back down to 2%. There's nothing complicated about that. Jerome Pal has clearly communicated for the past year that the target rate is 2% and they're going to raise interest rates until inflation goes to 2%. That's it. There's nothing to figure out. There's nothing more for him to say. All this nonsense about paying attention to his every last sentence creates this ongoing roller coaster of a market that's not necessary. So to see the market react this way, for bond yields to go up, for the market to drop down after he reiterates something that he's been

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed