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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Aug 29, 2022, at 10:04 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“the federal funds rate will go up substantially my money will be betting on at least point seven five percent now it could be half a percent”
Watch at 10:04The Recession Just Got WORSE
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

2.5%

Aug 29, 2022

Reading at close

5.5%

Aug 29, 2023

Change

+3.00 pp

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 29, 2023, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232023Said on Aug 29, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222023Said on Aug 29, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct2.5%3.25%Sep 28, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct2.5%4%Nov 27, 2022+1.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct2.5%4.75%Feb 25, 2023+2.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct2.5%5.5%Aug 29, 2023+3.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct2.5%4.5%Aug 28, 2025+2.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 28, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Sep 28, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 27, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Feb 25, 2023, a net change of +2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 29, 2023, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Aug 28, 2025, a net change of +2.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 28, 2027.

What was said around it

angriest that we've all ever seen papa jerome powell it's almost like he was frustrated that the market wasn't taking him seriously enough but now that he's emphasized just how strong he's about to get on inflation and he'll increase interest rates no matter what the cost the market was finally like okay fine we believe you and the market's sold off now this also means that more than likely when we get the next inflation report the consumer price index which will be released on september 13th regardless of what that number is the federal funds rate will go up substantially my money will be betting on at least point seven five percent now it could be half a percent but based on what jerome powell has been telling us managing the average everyday consumer and business person mentality is the number one priority so he wants to beat us up with a club over the head with those .75 percent increases until we think okay inflation's gonna come down now for me personally even though i think i'm right because i follow this stuff religiously because of a youtube channel and no one cares other than nerds like me at the end of the day i'm not going to speculate with my portfolio and try to time the

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed