Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate — no direction stated

Said on Mar 18, 2026, at 12:44 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“This means we're probably not going to see interest rate cuts for quite some time.”
Watch at 12:44BREAKING: Federal Reserve CANCELS Rate Cuts - Gas Prices Skyrocket, Stock Market Plummets!
PredictionFed policy rate— no direction statedChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%202320242024202520262027Said on Mar 18, 2026
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%2023202420252027Said on Mar 18, 2026

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-FED v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

What was said around it

whole thing appeared to be to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a Fed chair who will. But, now with that out of the way, the Fed has a clear path forward without any external interruption. The second, to complicate these matters even further, one senator has been blocking the confirmation of the next Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who's scheduled to replace Jerome Powell in May. And there is a small chance, if this gets unresolved, Jerome Powell could stay head of the chair for a little longer than expected. This means we're probably not going to see interest rate cuts for quite some time. Beyond that though, today was also the day that we received what's called the summary of economic projections, which basically predicts where they expect rates in the economy to move over the next few years. And in terms of what they expect, believe it or not, their projections are mostly unchanged from the last meeting where they anticipate one rate cut in 2026, 4.4% unemployment, and slightly higher inflation. So, in terms of what this means for you and my own thoughts about what's going on, here's what you need to know. Look, we are in a genuinely unusual

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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