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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Feb 5, 2024, at 15:20 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“it is likely that the FED will cut at some point though and when it does it will likely lead to expectations that are full full-blown rate cutting cycle is coming one that takes interest rates back to zero”
Watch at 15:20Crypto News: Bitcoin, ETH Upgrade, The Fed, USDT & MORE!!
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Feb 5, 2024

Reading at close

4.5%

Feb 4, 2025

Change

−1.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Feb 4, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120212022202320242025Said on Feb 5, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202220232025Said on Feb 5, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Mar 6, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%May 5, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Aug 3, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Feb 4, 2025−1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 4, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 3, 2029——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 6, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on May 5, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 3, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Feb 4, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 4, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 3, 2029.

What was said around it

trade in accordance with whatever assets they consider it to be like as such higher interest rates could lead to a strange scenario where BTC rallies because of institutional exposure exposure select altcoins rally because they're being directly or indirectly propped up by stable coin issuers and others rally because they actually have solid fundamentals in the form of fees again though this all assumes that interest rates will stay higher for longer and it's definitely too soon to say for sure it is likely that the FED will cut at some point though and when it does it will likely lead to expectations that are full full-blown rate cutting cycle is coming one that takes interest rates back to zero it's only when the FED stops halfway that we can truly start to speculate about higher for longer anyway with all that said it's about time we looked at last week's top performing cryptos so take it away Jessica thanks Guy well last week's top performing cryptos were flare Network pendall Finance chain link pith Network and Ronin starting with Flare Network we couldn't figure out what caused its flr coin to pump our best guess is that it had to do with the Project's announcement that it will

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

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Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

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Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

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Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed