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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Jul 20, 2022, at 16:13 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“risk assets like stocks and crypto are not going to be recovering until the fed's rate hiking cycle is complete”
Watch at 16:13Ethereum Merge Closer Than EVER!! What It Means For ETH!
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

1.75%

Jul 20, 2022

Reading at close

5.25%

Jul 20, 2023

Change

+3.50 pp

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jul 20, 2023, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232023Said on Jul 20, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on Jul 20, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect1.75%2.5%Aug 19, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect1.75%3.25%Oct 18, 2022+1.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect1.75%4.5%Jan 16, 2023+2.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect1.75%5.25%Jul 20, 2023+3.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Incorrect1.75%4.5%Jul 19, 2025+2.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jul 19, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Aug 19, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 18, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 16, 2023, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jul 20, 2023, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jul 19, 2025, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 19, 2027.

What was said around it

chance of something going horribly wrong come the merge itself while the devs are taking every step possible to test the merge before deploying it on the main net there is always a risk that something unforeseen could happen it's hard to hedge this scenario and if it does happen it could have a cataclysmic impact on the whole crypto market it's not likely but you can never ever say that something is guaranteed and finally another argument for the bear case is just the broader macro environment it is not likely to improve anytime soon and risk assets like stocks and crypto are not going to be recovering until the fed's rate hiking cycle is complete i talked about this in much greater detail in my video about how long the bear market could last that is in the description basically the fed is not slowing its rate hikes anytime soon and after the july meeting fed officials are going away for a two-month holiday it's all right for some isn't it that means that if inflation continues to climb entirely possible then they will have to come back from their two-month recess and pump those rates even more it doesn't matter if you hold eth bitcoin or stocks in this macro environment cash sadly

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed