Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on May 4, 2022, at 2:02 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“now it's all but confirmed that we'll see a 50 basis point rate hike throughout the rest of the year potentially causing prices to continue fall falling”
Watch at 2:02THE FED JUST HIKED RATES *AGAIN* | Major Changes Explained
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.5%

May 4, 2022

Reading at close

5.25%

May 4, 2023

Change

+4.75 pp

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 4, 2023, a net change of +4.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 475 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202120222023Said on May 4, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on May 4, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%1%Jun 3, 2022+0.50 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%2.5%Aug 2, 2022+2.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%3.25%Oct 31, 2022+2.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.5%5.25%May 4, 2023+4.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.5%4.5%May 3, 2025+4.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——May 3, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 1.00% on Jun 3, 2022, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Aug 2, 2022, a net change of +2.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 200 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 31, 2022, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 275 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 4, 2023, a net change of +4.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 475 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 3, 2025, a net change of +4.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 500 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 3, 2027.

What was said around it

lead us to paying fifty dollars for a loaf of bread by 2030. now they've made it very clear since the beginning of the year that they intend to raise rates and tighten their policies to reduce the demand and price of goods and services and so on March 16th they proved their first rate hike of 25 basis points even though that might not sound like a huge rate increase on paper mortgage rates quickly shot up to five percent the stock market tumbled on concerns that China's lockdown could make U.S inflation even worse and now it's all but confirmed that we'll see a 50 basis point rate hike throughout the rest of the year potentially causing prices to continue fall falling so that of course begs the question how have similar rate hikes happened in the past and is there a chance the dreaded Volker shock happening again 40 years later well here's where things get interesting or at least interesting for me because I'm obsessed with all things personal finance but listen to this the Volker shock all began when Paul volcker became the chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1979 during a Time known as the great inflation see prior to then Congress enacted What's called the Employment Act of 1946 which

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