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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Sep 4, 2023, at 16:53 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“this rise in unemployment will put the FED under immense pressure to cut interest rates”
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PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5.5%

Sep 4, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Sep 3, 2024

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 3, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Sep 4, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Sep 4, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Oct 4, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Dec 3, 20230.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Mar 2, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Sep 3, 20240.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct5.5%3.75%Sep 3, 2026−1.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Sep 2, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Oct 4, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 3, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 2, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 3, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Sep 3, 2026, a net change of −1.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 175 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 2, 2028.

What was said around it

in over a year and revisions suggest that fewer jobs were added than previously reported to be fair the U.S unemployment rate is still below 4 which is the fed target the caveat is that it's not the level of unemployment that matters it's the direction it's headed in and how fast it's going there as you can see unemployment seems to be rising fast when you average it out over the last few months this means that in a few months time unemployment could be well above the first four percent Target at that time investors will become the lucky ones because this rise in unemployment will put the FED under immense pressure to cut interest rates the caveat is that the FED may not fold at first if you watched our recent summary of the Central Banking Symposium at Jackson Hall you'll know the FED is explicitly looking for unemployment to rise that's because a rise in unemployment is required for core inflation to come down this means the FED could keep rates High even as unemployment Rises but if history is any indication the FED will only be able to do this for so long before something breaks it could be another banking crisis or it could be a collapse in commercial real estate whatever the Catalyst

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed