Said on May 10, 2026, at 6:45 in the video.
“CME FedWatch is now pricing a roughly 84 to 95% probability that rates stay on hold through the end of 2026. There is now a non-trivial probability of a rate hike in early 2027.”Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Attributed to CME FedWatch — not scored
Robin Hood. He has called the current $6.7 trillion Fed balance sheet bloated. He has demanded what he calls regime change at the Federal Reserve. So, this is, on the macro side, a genuine hawk. Now, here is the paradox that should have every holder paying attention. The man personally invested across 30 crypto positions is the same man whose monetary policy philosophy is the most aggressively tight money posture we've seen on a Fed chair shortlist in over a decade. The current Fed funds rate sits at 3.64%. CME FedWatch is now pricing a roughly 84 to 95% probability that rates stay on hold through the end of 2026. There is now a non-trivial probability of a rate hike in early 2027. War documented policy preference is shrinking the balance sheet aggressively while potentially cutting short rates to offset what analysts at ABM Amro have described as the QT for cuts trade. That is a financially neutral mix on paper. In practice, it would push long and treasury yields higher while easing the short end. The 10-year is already at 4.45%. Bitcoin's relationship with that rate since the launch of the spot ETFs has become extraordinarily direct. BlackRock's IBIT alone now holds 63.5 billion dollars
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
