Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Aug 22, 2025, at 12:24 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“And it does look as though he's hinting at a rate cut as soon as September comes.”
Watch at 12:24BREAKING: The FED Just Flipped - Money Printing Is BACK!
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Nov 20, 2025
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.5%

Aug 22, 2025

Reading at close

3.75%

Aug 22, 2026

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 22, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
2%3%4%5%6%202220232024202520262026Said on Aug 22, 2025
2%3%4%5%6%2022202420252026Said on Aug 22, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%4.25%Sep 21, 2025−0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%4%Nov 20, 2025−0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Feb 18, 2026−0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Aug 22, 2026−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 21, 2028——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 21, 2030——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct4.5%4%Nov 20, 2025−0.50 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Sep 21, 2025, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 20, 2025, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Feb 18, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 22, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 21, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 21, 2030.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 20, 2025, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

Powell personally said it himself. They were going to lower interest rates but held off because of tariff uncertainty. However, today he admitted that tariff inflation could only be temporary. So, we'll have to wait and see. Anyway, in terms of what's happening next and the impact this could have on our entire economy, here's what I think. Overall, this is rather optimistic for the economy. like Jerome Powell saying that he's flexible on inflation means that they no longer have to keep interest rates higher than needed if everything else is otherwise okay. And it does look as though he's hinting at a rate cut as soon as September comes. However, yeah, I do admit it's a little worrisome that they're cutting interest rates while stocks, housing, and cryptocurrencies near an all-time high. And this could spark another round of asset price increases. Although, if you're invested, yeah, this could be pretty optimistic for you and your portfolio. Let me know what you think of this down below in the comments section. I will do my best to read and reply to as many of you as I can since I am trying to do this all last minute to give you the most up-to-date information. Again, if you appreciate

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed