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Joseph Carlson: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Mar 13, 2023, at 10:07 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I disagree with Goldman hair I think we're going to see another 25 basis point increase but I also think a lot of this will come down to the next CPI reading”
Watch at 10:07Silicon Valley Bank Fallout Spreads, What Now
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.75%

Mar 13, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Mar 12, 2024

Change

+0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 12, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212021202220232024Said on Mar 13, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Mar 13, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5%Apr 12, 2023+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.25%Jun 11, 2023+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Sep 9, 2023+0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Mar 12, 2024+0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4.75%3.75%Mar 12, 2026−1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 11, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 12, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 11, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 9, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 12, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 12, 2026, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 11, 2028.

What was said around it

in their next meeting they think they're going to keep it the same because of the considerable uncertainty in the environment now I understand the logic here the FED will keep raising interest rates until something cracks or something breaks but I think in this situation the FED has made it abundantly clear that they're going to raise interest rates until inflation comes down that is their mandate it's not to raise interest rates until Things become uncertain it's to raise interest rates until inflation comes down so I disagree with Goldman hair I think we're going to see another 25 basis point increase but I also think a lot of this will come down to the next CPI reading so overall this past couple of days and even even this past week has been crazy it's been event filled non-stop news breaking news all the time and I think it's good for investors in these situations to just take a breath take a step back and not be so consumed by every little bit of breaking news I know it's fun to consume all of it and to read all of it but I think that can have a negative impact on your view of the market and how you manage your investments in reality the companies that you're investing in if they're

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed