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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Dec 19, 2023, at 5:24 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“because I live in the future the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 202 4 which is also why Tesla's stock has gone up 113%”
Watch at 5:24Top 10 Best Stocks Of The S&P500
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Dec 19, 2023

Reading at close

4.75%

Dec 18, 2024

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 18, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Dec 19, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Dec 19, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jan 18, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Mar 18, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jun 16, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.75%Dec 18, 2024−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 18, 2026——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 17, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Dec 31, 2024−1.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 18, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 18, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 16, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 18, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 18, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 17, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2024, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

110% this year now next up on the list coming in at number seven is Tesla or as Jay Leno likes to call them Tesla now I love Tesla but I also think Tesla is more than just a stock it's also kind of a religion there's entire blogs and YouTube channels dedicated to predicting Tesla's next move and how much the stock will be worth and while no one knows for sure what's going to happen to Tesla's stock in the future I can say they've had an insane year with the roll out of the cybertruck the full self-driving software the price cuts and because I live in the future the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 202 4 which is also why Tesla's stock has gone up 113% and coming in at number six is another tech stock ticker symbol PW which is Palo Alto networks and if you've never heard of them before it's a cyber security company that builds nextg firewalls and protection systems for other corporations and don't worry I had no idea either but their stock is up a massive 117% and according to Reddit their stock is going to crash spectacularly so that means all in on Palo Alto networks now now the fifth best stock so far this year has been ticker symbol phm or py group it's a consumer discretionary

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed