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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Oct 10, 2022, at 9:04 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“because higher gas prices means higher inflation for longer is why it gives the FED more reason to raise rates at their next meeting on November 2nd”
Watch at 9:04It Started: The Worst Oil Crisis In 40 YEARS
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

3.25%

Oct 10, 2022

Reading at close

5.5%

Oct 10, 2023

Change

+2.25 pp

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Oct 10, 2023, a net change of +2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232024Said on Oct 10, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222024Said on Oct 10, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct3.25%4%Nov 9, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct3.25%4.5%Jan 8, 2023+1.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct3.25%5%Apr 8, 2023+1.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct3.25%5.5%Oct 10, 2023+2.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct3.25%4.25%Oct 9, 2025+1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Oct 9, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 9, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 8, 2023, a net change of +1.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 125 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 8, 2023, a net change of +1.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 175 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Oct 10, 2023, a net change of +2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 3.25% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Oct 9, 2025, a net change of +1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 9, 2027.

What was said around it

stock market in the global economy until now there's a huge indirect link because remember the Federal Reserve likes to base their interest rate decisions on inflation or the CPI the Consumer Price Index which measures inflation and when gas prices go up and they go higher that means we get a higher CPI number higher inflation which means higher interest rates to fight set inflation when that happens the cost of mortgages and the cost of borrowing money goes up and that means less money in consumer Pockets to invest and because higher gas prices means higher inflation for longer is why it gives the FED more reason to raise rates at their next meeting on November 2nd now normally this kind of a correlation between oil prices and the stock market is not supposed to exist in a healthy economy where inflation's at two percent but unfortunately for now that's the reason now there's a second reason why the stock market is falling and that's because of the jobs report recently the economy added 236 000 jobs which normally is supposed to be a good thing but right now the stock market sees this as a bad thing because again it gives more reason to the FED to raise rates because it sees the economy

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed