What was said
“he said that the FED is likely to lower interest rates starting in q1 of 2024”Watch at 2:06Elon Musk Goes To War With Disney
Joseph Carlson, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Nov 30, 2023, at 2:06 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
rumored to be starting a new chain it's called cosmics you can see the McDonald's logo there but instead of selling burgers and fries this place sells Frappuccinos Iced Teas and Brews it looks a lot like Starbucks or Dutch Bros we'll be looking at this New Concept for McDonald's as we got a bit of an inside Peak and then finally we have a lot of macro calls about the economy one person that has been more accurate than not is Bill Amman he's been pretty pretty good with his macro calls over the past two years and he made another pretty big call just recently he said that the FED is likely to lower interest rates starting in q1 of 2024 he gives his reasoning for that in this interview so welcome to the Joseph Carlson show we obviously have a lot to cover in this episode let's go ahead and jump in to start things off we'll go ahead and jump into the Elon Musk news before we jump into what elama said specifically I want to go back a year this was one year ago at another deal Summit interview but this time it was of the co-ceo of Netflix Reed Hastings he's no longer the CEO but he was at the time here's what the Netflix CEO thought of Elon Musk I'm excited I'm excited um Elon Musk is the bravest
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Relayed
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Relayed
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Not verifiable
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Incorrect so far · 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Relayed
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
Relayed