Said on Feb 17, 2023, at 5:04 in the video.
“right now it shows there's an 87.8 percent chance that the next raid hike which will happen on March 22nd that it will go up between 0.25 and half a percent so the new Range will fall between 4.75 and 5”Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Somebody else's forecast — not scored
Papa pal comes in he's like a wizard probably a Hufflepuff I think he tells the truth and I like him but he has two main spells up his sleeve and spell number one is that he makes you believe that interest rates are going to go up and they're going to stay there for a very long time it's more of a illusion charm and then spell number two is to actually increase the interest rates now according to the CME fed watch tool which so far has been incredibly reliable at predicting future rate increases right now it shows there's an 87.8 percent chance that the next raid hike which will happen on March 22nd that it will go up between 0.25 and half a percent so the new Range will fall between 4.75 and 5 so that's the boring data stuff with interest rates and employment now let me just tie it all together and show you what's happening to the market for buyers and investors so here's what's crazy the S P 500 Index which is what everyone refers to as the stock market is up nine percent year-to-date which is insane because we're just two and a half months into the year and that's a Year's worth of gains baked into the market but what's really going to blow your mind is that it's the riskier stocks
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
