Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Aug 19, 2024, at 5:19 in the video.

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420252025Said on Aug 19, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202320242025Said on Aug 19, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Not scored under the published method.

What was said around it

participants to see whether he gives any indication of whether the FED is planning to cut rates I mean could he actually say a figure or is that pretty unlikly I think it's you wouldn't want to reveal your hand he'll use fed speak you know and they'll have to get that Wall Street Journal report to what the FED Whisperer to decipher what he's saying the translate for us uh but yeah it will all be based on whether he's making a more doish or a hawkish you know sub subtext and that will then be used to determine whether it's going to be a 25 or a 50 but it's definitely going to be a cut I think the Market's position for that I think he's even alluded to it yeah um so the question will then be what is how's his tone and everything at that meeting and that will be used as a basis to determine um how things are looking for September but I would definitely if you guys are watching at the time of the his his speech on Friday watch how the probabilities adjust on the CME fed watch tool it's amazing how quickly they react yeah was fascinating to watch isn't it and I get yeah people will be looking to see how many times Jerome clears his throat and what m in yeah and he he's subliminally messaging to all

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all