“it's definitely going to be a cut I think the Market's position for that I think he's even alluded to it”Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Aug 19, 2024, at 5:19 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedNot scored under the published method.
What was said around it
participants to see whether he gives any indication of whether the FED is planning to cut rates I mean could he actually say a figure or is that pretty unlikly I think it's you wouldn't want to reveal your hand he'll use fed speak you know and they'll have to get that Wall Street Journal report to what the FED Whisperer to decipher what he's saying the translate for us uh but yeah it will all be based on whether he's making a more doish or a hawkish you know sub subtext and that will then be used to determine whether it's going to be a 25 or a 50 but it's definitely going to be a cut I think the Market's position for that I think he's even alluded to it yeah um so the question will then be what is how's his tone and everything at that meeting and that will be used as a basis to determine um how things are looking for September but I would definitely if you guys are watching at the time of the his his speech on Friday watch how the probabilities adjust on the CME fed watch tool it's amazing how quickly they react yeah was fascinating to watch isn't it and I get yeah people will be looking to see how many times Jerome clears his throat and what m in yeah and he he's subliminally messaging to all
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More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
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Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026