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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Apr 8, 2022, at 2:42 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the chance of a larger rate hike is increasing because the economy should be able to handle it,”
Watch at 2:42The New Stock Market World Order Has Begun | Recession Warning
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.5%

Apr 8, 2022

Reading at close

5%

Apr 8, 2023

Change

+4.50 pp

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 8, 2023, a net change of +4.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 450 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202020202120222023Said on Apr 8, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on Apr 8, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%1%May 8, 2022+0.50 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%1.75%Jul 7, 2022+1.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%3.25%Oct 5, 2022+2.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.5%5%Apr 8, 2023+4.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.5%4.5%Apr 7, 2025+4.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Apr 7, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 1.00% on May 8, 2022, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jul 7, 2022, a net change of +1.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 125 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 5, 2022, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 275 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 8, 2023, a net change of +4.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 450 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Apr 7, 2025, a net change of +4.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 500 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 7, 2027.

What was said around it

will raise rates. They do this by influencing what's called the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge other banks when they lend each other money. The higher this rate goes, the more influence there is for other rates to go up alongside with it. And voila, we got mortgage rates now at 5%. Finally, fourth, the chance more interest rate hikes is increasing. As Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan said, the stronger the recovery, the higher the rates that follow. And right now with record low unemployment and a very strong job market, the chance of a larger rate hike is increasing because the economy should be able to handle it, right? Well, all of that happening at the exact same time is leading us to what's known as a new world order within the stock market. And if you're wondering what that is, wonder no longer. Right as the Fed plans to reduce their balance sheet, Black Rockck is telling their investors to prepare for the end of a backdrop of low rates and slow growth that's defined markets since the 2008 great financial crisis. From their perspective, they see a new world order taking shape that will undoubtedly entail higher inflation and rates than we knew from 2008

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed