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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on May 4, 2022, at 4:51 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“with inflation continuing to rise the Federal Reserve has all but confirmed that we're likely to see an upcoming 50 basis point rate hike in May”
Watch at 4:51THE FED JUST HIKED RATES *AGAIN* | Major Changes Explained
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.5%

May 4, 2022

Reading at close

5.25%

May 4, 2023

Change

+4.75 pp

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 4, 2023, a net change of +4.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 475 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202120222023Said on May 4, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on May 4, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%1%Jun 3, 2022+0.50 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%2.5%Aug 2, 2022+2.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%3.25%Oct 31, 2022+2.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.5%5.25%May 4, 2023+4.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.5%4.5%May 3, 2025+4.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——May 3, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 1.00% on Jun 3, 2022, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Aug 2, 2022, a net change of +2.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 200 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 31, 2022, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 275 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 4, 2023, a net change of +4.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 475 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 3, 2025, a net change of +4.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 500 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 3, 2027.

What was said around it

shake it off like Taylor Swift but they don't have the best track record of doing that out of the previous 13 rate height Cycles 10 of them have preceded a recession and as Fannie Mae concludes it's a lot more likely that we're going to see what they call a hard Landing right as the FED signals that they're about to be much more aggressive than they have been in the past in fact they even go so far as to say that we believe enough has now changed over the past couple months to expect this eventual downturn by the end of 2023 with inflation continuing to rise the Federal Reserve has all but confirmed that we're likely to see an upcoming 50 basis point rate hike in May and some of the more aggressive fed members even suggest the 75 basis point rate hike to get it out of the way the goal in the short term is to achieve What's called the neutral interest rate which is a rate that neither Sparks nor hurts growth it's just neutral and to make things even more confusing the neutral interest rate 8 isn't even known it's just estimated based on various analysis and observations but others argued that this assumes that inflation has to come down but if it doesn't they may need to hike rates even

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed