Coin Bureau, relaying CME fedwatch tool: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Aug 18, 2024, at 8:49 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“this boosted Traders confidence in the prospect of a September rate cut which the CME fedwatch tool currently says is 100% likely to happen”
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PredictionFed policy ratewill fall
What happened
Relayed

Attributed to CME fedwatch tool — not scored

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420252025Said on Aug 18, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202320242025Said on Aug 18, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Attributed to CME fedwatch tool — not scored

What was said around it

Direction quite dramatically in July over a 20-day period the combined market cap of The Magnificent 7 fell on average $125 billion per day this amounted to $2.6 trillion being deleted from the stock market but interestingly while Mega cap started to melt down small cap US Stocks started to rally and the media became a buzz with Talk of the great rotation from the Magnificent 7 into small caps so what happened well the rotation began on the 11th of July after the US Department of Labor posted cooler than expected inflation data this boosted Traders confidence in the prospect of a September rate cut which the CME fedwatch tool currently says is 100% likely to happen what does this mean well the Magnificent 7 companies are sitting on a mountain of hundreds of billions of dollars in cash reserves and this means that they are pretty well insulated from macroeconomic trends like rate hikes and cuts if anything higher interest rates might even be better for them because they can sit around earning yield on their reserves smaller cap companies on the other hand have been hammered by high interest rates over the past 2 years many of them are not profitable and rely on external financing this means

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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