Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Dec 18, 2024, at 12:04 in the video.

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420252026Said on Dec 18, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202320242026Said on Dec 18, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

willing to negotiate although in terms of what Jerome pal just said as of a few hours ago and the reaction of the market here is what you came for as of a few hours ago the Federal Reserve has decided to cut interest rates another 25 basis points as expected except this time we get the benefit of receiving a lot more information about their plan for the next year and what's called the summary of economic projections this estimates where they believe we'll see inflation interest rates unemployment and GDP over the next few years and in this case bad news they're now expecting significantly fewer rate Cuts in 2025 than they initially expected as you could see here which has caused the market to enter a bit of a freef fall as investors price and higher rates for longer for them they explain that they want to take it slow make sure that inflation doesn't re accelerate and by holding firm they're ensuring that prices don't meaningfully Spike back up on top of that they believe that we'll be able to return the inflation rate back to their 2 % Target and then hold steady and adjust in the future as needed and overall it appears as though their fight against inflation is working all in all none

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