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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Jun 1, 2026, at 16:08 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Watch at 16:08How The US Is Quietly Erasing The $39 Trillion National Debt
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Incorrect so far · 90 days

Reading when said

3.75%

Jun 1, 2026

Reading at close

3.75%

Aug 30, 2026

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 3.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 30, 2026, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%202320242025202520262027Said on Jun 1, 2026
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%2023202420262027Said on Jun 1, 2026

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect3.75%3.75%Jul 1, 20260.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect3.75%3.75%Aug 30, 20260.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Pending——Nov 28, 2026——
1 yearR-FED v4Pending——Jun 1, 2027——
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——May 31, 2029——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——May 31, 2031——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 3.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Jul 1, 2026, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 3.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 30, 2026, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 28, 2026.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 1, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 31, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 31, 2031.

What was said around it

go on for so long until eventually someone has to pay for it. And I think it's going to be people who make more than you do will be voted in to pay higher taxes. In combination, by the way, with number two, the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can. Keep in mind, I don't think this is going to be obvious. I don't think the government's just going to come out and say, "Hey guys, so we're actually implementing financial regression today." Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money. The person who's going to be most affected by this is simply the person who's saving up extra money over time trying to get ahead and then constantly wondering, "Oh man, my money just isn't going as far as it used to." Leading to number three, the data is just going to get harder to trust. Again, not to be a crazy theorist here, but when institutions measuring the problem have a financial interest in showing lower numbers, eventually it's just going to show over time lower numbers. Like we're talking

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“I'm definitely not betting on lower interest rates coming anytime soon, and I'm definitely not over-leveraging on anything that's dependent on interest rates coming down anytime in the next 12 months.”

May 21, 2026

Not scored