Said on May 26, 2026, at 1:54 in the video.
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Somebody else's forecast — not scored
now. Chris Waller, who was one of the first people to vote for rate cuts, he's now saying he's prepared to vote for rate increases if the war goes on and inflation does not come down. Here's a line from his speech. I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon. And that is especially true if measures of inflation expectations, some of which have risen lately, show signs of becoming unanchored. It's what's about to happen to the cost of borrowing money. Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen. Cuz a year ago, everyone on Wall Street was betting that the Federal Reserve would lower rates three, four, maybe five times by now. Goldman Sachs was saying this. The bond market was predicting it. That was allegedly the reason why Trump wanted Kevin Worsh as the new Fed chair so that he could lower interest rates. But that's not what happened. Here's what happened instead. Two of America's biggest foreign buyers of debt are now selling US government debt. Right? And it's not just them. It is also
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“I'm definitely not betting on lower interest rates coming anytime soon, and I'm definitely not over-leveraging on anything that's dependent on interest rates coming down anytime in the next 12 months.”
May 21, 2026
