Said on May 21, 2026, at 9:24 in the video.
“the market's beginning to price in the likelihood that Kevin Warsh is going to raise interest rates as his first policy move, mainly because inflation's growing out of control.”Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Somebody else's forecast — not scored
market. And right now, that bond market is in shambles. Why? Well, these long-term rates are completely dictated by market supply and demand. And if investors think there's going to be more inflation and more volatility in the future, they demand higher compensation upfront for the additional risk. This means even if the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates tomorrow, your borrowing costs only fall if long-term investors believe that inflation is going down. And right now, they do not. In fact, as of right now, the market's beginning to price in the likelihood that Kevin Warsh is going to raise interest rates as his first policy move, mainly because inflation's growing out of control. The stock market is feeling more wealth creation than we have ever seen before in history, And the only way to maybe get ahead of it might just be to crash the stock market, remove all the free money from the economy, and then start over from a clean slate. Or basically, investors are out there looking at the current market landscape, and they're thinking to themselves, "We've got higher oil prices. Inflation isn't fully priced in. And now the Fed wants to change the way they measure inflation, which is going
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
