Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Jan 11, 2023, at 17:11 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“it looks like this will happen in mid-march this assumes that the FED will hike by 25 basis points at the beginning of February and by another 25 basis points in March”
Watch at 17:11The Fed Said WHAT!? Latest Minutes Show What's Coming!!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.5%

Jan 11, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Jan 11, 2024

Change

+1.00 pp

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 11, 2024, a net change of +1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020202021202220232024Said on Jan 11, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120222024Said on Jan 11, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%4.75%Feb 10, 2023+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%5%Apr 11, 2023+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%5.25%Jul 10, 2023+0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.5%5.5%Jan 11, 2024+1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Jan 10, 2026−0.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jan 10, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Feb 10, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 11, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jul 10, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 11, 2024, a net change of +1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Jan 10, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 10, 2028.

What was said around it

it comes to the effects of liquidity on cryptocurrency I'll leave a link to an interview with him in the description and now for the big question what does this all mean for the crypto Market well it all depends on how quickly the FED will hit its five percent Target and how long it will take until inflation Falls below interest rates across the yield curve as entertaining as other potential factors are it's clear that the FED is on a mission when it comes to how quickly the FED will hit its five percent Target it looks like this will happen in mid-march this assumes that the FED will hike by 25 basis points at the beginning of February and by another 25 basis points in March funnily enough this would be consistent with historical tightening Cycles which last about one year now I want to say that the crypto Market will rally when the FED pauses but I don't think that will happen besides the fact that the FED is now explicitly telling investors to calm down there's no shortage of macro and crypto factors that could take the crypto Market lower more about those in the description now it's the second part of this equation where crypto could shine if inflation Falls faster than the FED

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed