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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Sep 19, 2022, at 2:48 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“it looks like the fed could respond to the august cpi print with a larger than expected rate hike”
Watch at 2:48Crypto News: ETH Crash, SEC, Do Kwon, Terra, CPI & MORE!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

2.5%

Sep 19, 2022

Reading at close

5.5%

Sep 19, 2023

Change

+3.00 pp

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 19, 2023, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232024Said on Sep 19, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222024Said on Sep 19, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct2.5%3.25%Oct 19, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct2.5%4.5%Dec 18, 2022+2.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct2.5%4.75%Mar 18, 2023+2.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct2.5%5.5%Sep 19, 2023+3.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct2.5%4.25%Sep 18, 2025+1.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Sep 18, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 19, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 18, 2022, a net change of +2.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 200 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Mar 18, 2023, a net change of +2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 19, 2023, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Sep 18, 2025, a net change of +1.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 18, 2027.

What was said around it

previous month the core cpi was actually higher if you watched our video about federal reserve chairman jerome powell's jackson hole speech you'll know that he said the fed will continue to raise interest rates until it sees more signs that inflation is easing now there were hopes that the august cpi print would be another sign of declining inflation but alas investors are now anxiously awaiting the fed's next press conference which is scheduled for this wednesday note that this will be the first time the fed has met since before the summer break and it looks like the fed could respond to the august cpi print with a larger than expected rate hike if you're subscribed to my weekly newsletter you'll know how much this could impact the crypto market in percentage terms be sure to subscribe using the link below to get my forward guidance by the way now another macro factor that seems to have affected the crypto market is the news that the pandemic is coming to a close according to the world health organization the end of the pandemic is in sight and according to axios concerns about the pandemic are at their lowest point yet now in theory this should be very bullish for markets because it means

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed