Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Mar 13, 2023, at 19:36 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“it's unlikely that the FED will stop raising interest rates lower interest rates or cease selling assets from its balance sheet anytime soon”
Watch at 19:36Crypto News: SVB Collapse, USDC, ETH, SEC, Fed & MORE!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.75%

Mar 13, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Mar 12, 2024

Change

+0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 12, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212021202220232024Said on Mar 13, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Mar 13, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5%Apr 12, 2023+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.25%Jun 11, 2023+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Sep 9, 2023+0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Mar 12, 2024+0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4.75%3.75%Mar 12, 2026−1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 11, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 12, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 11, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 9, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 12, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 12, 2026, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 11, 2028.

What was said around it

before the June deadline given by the treasury the U.S government could risk default this would cause the markets to crash and result in a downgrade of U.S government debt more about that in the description regardless it's likely that banks will continue to experience unrealized losses as long as the FED is selling assets off its balance sheet and these unrealized losses will again be increased by the treasury once it's able to issue more U.S government debt this is likely putting pressure on the FED to hit the brakes however it's unlikely that the FED will stop raising interest rates lower interest rates or cease selling assets from its balance sheet anytime soon this is simply because inflation is still too high doing any of those three now would result in long-term inflation expectations going up risking hyperinflation at the same time unemployment is still low meaning the FED still has room to raise interest rates before its Mandate of keeping inflation at two percent comes into conflict with its Mandate of keeping unemployment at around four percent if inflation figures for February come in hot they will stick to their guns if you're subscribed to My Weekly Newsletter you'll know

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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