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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Jun 17, 2024, at 13:42 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“lowering interest rates which is what the Federal Reserve is expected to do at least once this year in September”
Watch at 13:42After Ditching the Dollar - Saudi Arabia Joins mBridge (Central Bank Digital Currency)
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Jun 17, 2024

Reading at close

4.5%

Jun 17, 2025

Change

−1.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jun 17, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420242025Said on Jun 17, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202220242025Said on Jun 17, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jul 17, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Sep 15, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.75%Dec 14, 2024−0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Jun 17, 2025−1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jun 17, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jun 16, 2029——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Dec 31, 2024−1.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jul 17, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 15, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 14, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jun 17, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 17, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 16, 2029.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2024, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

the economy explodes fortunately for the Petro dollar system it has this exit valve right here without the Escape valve countries around the world have had their currencies and economies collapse their balloons exploded because they printed too much money and a major reason why that has never happened in the US despite having print printed trillions of dollars is because we export those dollars to countries for their energy global trade and conflict so the US money balloon is always able to deflate now in the same very nerdy analogy of mine lowering interest rates which is what the Federal Reserve is expected to do at least once this year in September means increasing the elasticity of this balloon I don't know if youve ever tried blowing up a balloon but it's really hard to do on on that first expansion it just makes it easier with lower interest rates and raising interest rates has the opposite effect now also along the same lines of this analogy a central bank digital currency that competes with this Petro dollar system has the effect of shrinking this balloon's exit valve potentially to a subatomic level to a tiny level which means if this balloon represents inflation it will take

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed