“the Fed's most recent interest
rate forecast notes that it will be lowering interest rates below 4% by the end of the year”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Apr 20, 2025, at 7:04 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
now the fact that the Fed announced that it would stabilize the bond market in the event of volatility effectively confirmed that it will do QE if necessary and something similar could happen sooner the Fed's next policy decision will be announced on May 7th and though investors aren't expecting any rate cuts the Fed's recent concerns around bond market volatility could result in them stopping doing QT completely which would be supportive of liquidity conditions around the margins it's also important to remember that the Fed's most recent interest rate forecast notes that it will be lowering interest rates below 4% by the end of the year and if inflation comes in lower than expected and the economy continues to weaken in the coming months the Fed could cut rates even sooner which would likewise be supportive of liquidity conditions around the margins and this ties into the third macro catalyst to watch and that's stimulus coming from other central banks as some of you may have heard the Chinese government is reportedly considering pulling forward its stimulus plans to try and offset the effects of Trump's tariffs obviously this would increase liquidity
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026