Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Sep 26, 2022, at 6:50 in the video.

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232024Said on Sep 26, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222024Said on Sep 26, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

is why they're considered super safe unless of course you go with option number two option number two gives you the option to sell those bonds before they reach maturity date right that's because you want to make more money faster but the question is will that bond be worth more or would it be worth less the answer to that question depends on where interest rates are going and we know that interest rates are going to go up which means future bond prices will continue to go down and the market knows this because if we look at the CME fed watch tool on November 2nd it shows a 72.9 chance that rates will go up again between 0.5 and 0.75 percent now what is all that mean right that means if I'm somebody who's in the market to buy some bonds and I want to buy some bonds from you right now would I pay you 98.25 for your 4.2 Bond if I know that I just have to wait a little and I know the government is going to create another exact same copy of your bond for the same price but instead of 4.2 percent it's gonna pay me five percent I'd rather wait so if you want to sell me your bond you're gonna have to offer me a discount to compensate for it and this is not a hypothetical scenario this has been

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