“on November 2nd it shows a 72.9 chance that rates will go up again between 0.5 and 0.75 percent”Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
Said on Sep 26, 2022, at 6:50 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
is why they're considered super safe unless of course you go with option number two option number two gives you the option to sell those bonds before they reach maturity date right that's because you want to make more money faster but the question is will that bond be worth more or would it be worth less the answer to that question depends on where interest rates are going and we know that interest rates are going to go up which means future bond prices will continue to go down and the market knows this because if we look at the CME fed watch tool on November 2nd it shows a 72.9 chance that rates will go up again between 0.5 and 0.75 percent now what is all that mean right that means if I'm somebody who's in the market to buy some bonds and I want to buy some bonds from you right now would I pay you 98.25 for your 4.2 Bond if I know that I just have to wait a little and I know the government is going to create another exact same copy of your bond for the same price but instead of 4.2 percent it's gonna pay me five percent I'd rather wait so if you want to sell me your bond you're gonna have to offer me a discount to compensate for it and this is not a hypothetical scenario this has been
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More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026