“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
Said on Jun 17, 2026, at 15:23 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
market's pretty much confirming that we're unlikely going to see any rate cuts anytime soon. In fact, they've just indicated a potential rate hike sometime this year, and that interest rates are expected to remain much more elevated than all of us were expecting. On top of that, today's the day where we get what's called the summary of economic projections, which basically forecasts where the entire Federal Reserve thinks our economy is heading over the next few years. And in terms of what they just said, like I mentioned earlier, they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again. And funny enough, one of the ways that we can tell where the market's heading in the future is based on what's called the dot plot where every voting member gives the public full transparency as to what they think is best for the economy. But wouldn't you know it, Kevin Warsh wants to get rid of the dot plot entirely under the impression that the Fed should signal less and do more. Effectively meaning that we would all
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“I'm definitely not betting on lower interest rates coming anytime soon, and I'm definitely not over-leveraging on anything that's dependent on interest rates coming down anytime in the next 12 months.”
May 21, 2026