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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Aug 21, 2023, at 11:55 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“my prediction even though I think it's completely worthless is that when the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates which theoretically should happen sometime next year that's when the market should go up unless of”
Watch at 11:55China’s Shadow Banking Crisis Just Started
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5.5%

Aug 21, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Aug 20, 2024

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 20, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242024Said on Aug 21, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232024Said on Aug 21, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Sep 20, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Nov 19, 20230.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Feb 17, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Aug 20, 20240.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct5.5%3.75%Aug 20, 2026−1.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 19, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Dec 31, 2024−1.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 20, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Nov 19, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 17, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 20, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 20, 2026, a net change of −1.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 175 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 19, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2024, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

concerned yet but it is important to pay attention to personally what I'm doing to protect my money is I am going to the bank as soon as I can and separating my accounts so that none of them hold more than 250 thousand dollars so I'm within the insurance limit just in case if we find out that this Shadow banking sector has a huge contagion and it's worse than we originally thought as for investing I'm still dollar cost averaging into the market because I'm investing for the long term and my prediction even though I think it's completely worthless is that when the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates which theoretically should happen sometime next year that's when the market should go up unless of course China takes everyone down with it which shouldn't happen but you know famous last words but I'd love to hear your thoughts so focus on your own investment journey and as always have a wonderful rest of your day smash the like button subscribe if you haven't already don't forget to grab your free stocks links are down below and then go track them automatically with a spreadsheet link Down Below in my patreon love you thank you so much for watching this video I'd love to see you

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed