As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 110 calls about house prices that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the Case-Shiller national home price index on FRED. At one year: 14 correct, 14 incorrect, 5 within band, 5 still open. The other 72 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Own predictions
110
38 up · 24 down
Correct / incorrect after 1 year
14 Correct 14 Incorrect
plus 0 partly correct and 5 within band. Every call counted, repeats included.
Still open
5
Windows not yet closed
The verdicts on this page are judged on one index and the chart draws another. The first may not be charted here without its publisher's permission, so the chart shows a public index of the same market, for reference. The two can differ.
Judged on: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED
Chart: FHFA purchase-only House Price Index, United States: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency via FRED, latest published figures. Grey bands are recessions.
181 predictions in all, newest first: 110 own, 71 relaying someone else's forecast (not scored).
“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 10, 2027.
30 days
Pending
90 days
Pending
180 days
Pending
1 year
Pending
“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”Attributed to Reuters poll of analysts — not scored
“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a local market; this rule reads national US figures only.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”Attributed to Reuters poll of analysts — not scored
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”Attributed to Reuters poll of analysts — not scored
“Meanwhile, prices are expected to rise throughout a lot of the more affordable areas in the Midwest.”“Zillow believes the prices will fall in places like Austin, New Orleans, Denver, the Sun Belt, and a big chunk of California.”Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“for anyone waiting for housing to get more affordable, you might be waiting a little longer.”
May 21, 2026
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“for anyone waiting for housing to get more affordable, you might be waiting a little longer.”
May 21, 2026
Graham StephanHouse priceswill fall
“That's why I'm beginning to think that you can score some good deals right now if the seller's reasonable and is willing to compensate you for the market falling over the next few years.”
Mar 25, 2026 · after 90 days
Graham StephanHouse prices— no direction stated
“what's most likely going to happen is that we see a flatline or a slow trend downwards, but it's not going to be anything crazy.”
Mar 18, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices will fall
“Anyway, this scenario ends with the S&P 500 falling 38% to roughly 3,500, a level that we've not seen since before ChatGPT launched. Home prices fall in all major metros.”
Feb 27, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices will rise to 2.2%
“The most optimistic of housing prices comes from, no surprise, realtor.com, who anticipates a national 2.2% increase in 2026, driven by slightly falling rates,”
Jan 13, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices will rise to 1.3%
“Fanny May anticipates a 1.3% gain this year, and Redin follows very closely behind with a 1% forecast.”
Jan 13, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying Zillow: House prices will rise to 1.2%
“Zillow believes that prices will rise 1.2% nationally in 2026.”
Jan 13, 2026
Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise
“the end result is most likely just going to be slightly higher housing prices.”
Jan 13, 2026 · after 180 days
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices will rise
“some experts believe that short-term this could actually cause home prices to spike back upwards as buyers scramble to lock in lower interest rates.”
Jan 13, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction
“prices may begin to soften, but not collapse, and affordability may slightly improve for buyers, but not by much.”
Jan 5, 2026
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“So, realistically, the home you're buying with a 50-year mortgage will not be $400,000. It'll be about $440,000, which means the spreadsheet math advantage disappears.”
Nov 13, 2025
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“It's not going to make any difference for housing affordability.”
Nov 9, 2025
Graham StephanHouse priceswill fall
“realistically, housing prices will continue to soften as more”
Sep 17, 2025 · after 180 days
Graham StephanHouse prices— no direction stated
“we might see a more flatlining of prices or really moderate gains, if anything.”
Jun 9, 2025 · after 1 year
Graham StephanHouse priceswill fall
“I tend to believe that we're going to see sales prices soften over the next few years, which is probably something healthy for the entire economy.”
Jun 9, 2025 · after 1 year
Coin BureauHouse priceswill fall
“It's only in the longer term that housing prices would start to come down”
Apr 10, 2025 · after 1 year
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“states like Florida Texas and Colorado are already seeing the same Trends with insurance costs going up because insurance companies want to stay ahead not going to wait for more disasters to raise their premiums”
Jan 13, 2025
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“analysts predict that homeowners in California could see their insurance costs go up by up to 40% on average”
Jan 13, 2025
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices — around 2.6%
“first they think that the housing Market's going to pick up with prices rising another 2.6% within the next 12 months”
Dec 18, 2024
Coin BureauHouse priceswill fall
“in the longer term however asset prices will cool off and wages will continue Rising this means that in the next decade buying a house and starting a family will become much more affordable”
Aug 4, 2024 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices — around 1.9%
“they're forecasting a 1.9% growth over 2024 which is slower than long-term Norms but a welcome slowdown for first-time home buyers”
May 1, 2024
Showing the newest 30 of 181.
Housing market calls by finance YouTubers, checked against Case-Shiller and Freddie Mac. House prices are judged on the growth rate, not the price level.
Graham Stephan's own calls on housing, rates, stocks and Bitcoin, each quoted to the second and checked against real prices and FRED data.
As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight counts 110 calls about house prices that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the Case-Shiller national home price index on FRED. At one year: 14 correct, 14 incorrect, 5 within band, 5 still open. The other 72 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Against the Case-Shiller national home price index on FRED, using each value as it was first published rather than later revisions, at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.
