Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices will fall

Said on Aug 26, 2022, at 7:32 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“he believes the housing market is in trouble as he points out home prices haven't fallen since the 2007 to9 recession existing home sales are down permits are down it might not be catastrophic but prices are expected to fall by something a little over 10% by 2024 or five”
Watch at 7:32It Started: The Housing Market Is Collapsing
PredictionHouse priceswill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happened
Relayed

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

little risk of them losing it to foreclosure and they're very likely to stay where they are especially if they've locked in a low interest rate core logic also agrees with this with the belief that home prices could still go up by another 42% year-over-year however I have to say the best analysis that I could find came from none other than Robert Schiller who correctly predicted the 2011.com crash along with the 2008 great financial crisis and recently he said that he believes the housing market is in trouble as he points out home prices haven't fallen since the 2007 to9 recession existing home sales are down permits are down it might not be catastrophic but prices are expected to fall by something a little over 10% by 2024 or five that's a good estimate now from there he follows up with three factors to keep an eye on the first one is speculation this is seen as investors and developers rushed to buy into property with the assumption that they'll be able to sell it for more in the future and as of now we've seen a record number of investors enter the market with plenty of new homes under construction next after that we have second overvaluation this is signaled by a price that exceeds what

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed