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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on May 27, 2022, at 7:22 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“even though inventory is beginning to increase housing values are still going up albeit at a slower Pace suggesting that most likely the largest price increases are behind us and will begin”
Watch at 7:22I Just Lost $1.5 Million In Stocks
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

20.03%

May 27, 2022

Reading at close

−0.27%

May 27, 2023

Change

−20.30 pp

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 27, 2023, a change of −20.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band20.03%18.14%Jun 26, 2022−1.89 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect20.03%13.08%Aug 25, 2022−6.95 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect20.03%7.67%Nov 23, 2022−12.36 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect20.03%−0.27%May 27, 2023−20.30 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect20.03%2.36%May 26, 2025−17.67 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——May 26, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 18.14% at Jun 26, 2022, a change of −1.89 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 25, 2022, a change of −6.95 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 7.67% at Nov 23, 2022, a change of −12.36 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and −0.27% at May 27, 2023, a change of −20.30 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 20.03% at the start of the window and 2.36% at May 26, 2025, a change of −17.67 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 26, 2027.

What was said around it

demand now course I keep a close eye on the real estate market since by and large it's still my biggest investment and I see what's happening every single day throughout housing values Rising interest rates have absolutely thrown a wrench in the ever-appreciating housing market that frankly was unsustainable to begin with there is no way that housing prices could continue on the trajectory of increasing 20 percent year over year without eventually slowing down and that is what we're beginning to see even though inventory is beginning to increase housing values are still going up albeit at a slower Pace suggesting that most likely the largest price increases are behind us and will begin to enter a time of somewhat normalcy in terms of my own Holdings though I'm happy to say that they've all held up tremendously well and my only unexpected event was filling a last minute vacancy from a tenant who decided to move out of state besides that my real estate Philosophy from the very beginning has always been buy a good deal with the intention of holding on to it forever and when I have such a low property tax basis combined with insanely low mortgage rates there's very little in incentive

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed