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Coin Bureau: House prices will fall

Said on Jul 5, 2022, at 12:35 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“so with lower demand and an oversupply on the market you can be sure that prices are likely to start adjusting downward”
Watch at 12:35Is This The RECESSION?! Here's The FACTS You Need To Know!!
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

15.86%

Jul 5, 2022

Reading at close

0.88%

Jul 5, 2023

Change

−14.98 pp

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Jul 5, 2023, a change of −14.98 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct15.86%13.08%Aug 4, 2022−2.78 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct15.86%9.21%Oct 3, 2022−6.65 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct15.86%3.85%Jan 1, 2023−12.01 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct15.86%0.88%Jul 5, 2023−14.98 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct15.86%1.64%Jul 4, 2025−14.22 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jul 4, 2027——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 13.08% at Aug 4, 2022, a change of −2.78 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 9.21% at Oct 3, 2022, a change of −6.65 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 3.85% at Jan 1, 2023, a change of −12.01 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Jul 5, 2023, a change of −14.98 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 15.86% at the start of the window and 1.64% at Jul 4, 2025, a change of −14.22 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 4, 2027.

What was said around it

as the feds started pumping interest rates mortgage rates started climbing aggressively the average interest rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage is now at 5.98 which is up considerably from the end of the first quarter these higher rates mean that the cost to service the mortgage on an average home has gone up by almost 50 percent this is already starting to filter into home sales across the country according to data from the national association of realtors sales fell for a fourth straight month in may and are down by 8.6 from a year ago so with lower demand and an oversupply on the market you can be sure that prices are likely to start adjusting downward this slowdown in housing could have negative implications for the economy in a number of ways firstly if there are fewer houses being built then that means the construction sector won't be reporting strong numbers which of course feed into gdp but perhaps a bigger factor is the impact that falling house prices have on consumer confidence for most people their home is the most important and valuable asset they own it's inextricably tied to their net worth and can also be used as a means to obtain additional financing to buy other things

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed