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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Mar 21, 2018, at 12:34 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“if anything I think we're gonna see some more predictable sustainable slower growth that's still going to be pretty good over the next ten years or so”
Watch at 12:3427 Years Old: Should I buy a House or a Lamborghini?
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

6.41%

Mar 21, 2018

Reading at close

3.66%

Mar 21, 2019

Change

−2.75 pp

House prices stood at 6.41% at the start of the window and 3.66% at Mar 21, 2019, a change of −2.75 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.41%6.55%Apr 20, 2018+0.14 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.41%6.17%Jun 19, 2018−0.24 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.41%5.28%Sep 17, 2018−1.14 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.41%3.66%Mar 21, 2019−2.75 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.41%13.35%Mar 20, 2021+6.94 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.41%0.88%Mar 20, 2023−5.54 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 6.41% at the start of the window and 6.55% at Apr 20, 2018, a change of +0.14 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 6.41% at the start of the window and 6.17% at Jun 19, 2018, a change of −0.24 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 6.41% at the start of the window and 5.28% at Sep 17, 2018, a change of −1.14 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 6.41% at the start of the window and 3.66% at Mar 21, 2019, a change of −2.75 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 6.41% at the start of the window and 13.35% at Mar 20, 2021, a change of +6.94 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 6.41% at the start of the window and 0.88% at Mar 20, 2023, a change of −5.54 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

flippers out there I'm starting to see a lot more people feel comfortable with moving because all of a sudden they've had all this equity built up in the property and they're starting to take profits and also there's zero downward pressure on real estate prices besides maybe rising interest rates which at the same time low supply is still keeping prices continually going up there's a chance that rising interest rates will mean that we're not going to see these huge 10 percent annual increases like we see in the previous years if anything I think we're gonna see some more predictable sustainable slower growth that's still going to be pretty good over the next ten years or so it's not gonna be these drastic just like year-over-year gains you know probably depending on the area but I think it's gonna be a lot more sustainable and that makes me think maybe now is the perfect time to go and buy a Lamborghini or like equivalent car like that basically put all my money in the car continue saving and then after two years or so sell the car and reinvest back in the market but the one thing is that the sub $700,000 market here in Los Angeles is absolutely unstoppable even with rising interest rates

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed