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Graham Stephan: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

Said on Dec 12, 2022, at 11:29 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I wouldn't be surprised if highly euphoric markets saw a drop of 20 to 25% only because they've gone up so much so quickly.”
Watch at 11:29It Started: Housing Prices Are Collapsing
PredictionHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figuresChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

What was said around it

risk falling into foreclosure regardless of their interest rate. But when you zoom out in the big picture, it's reported that fewer than 1% of homes mortgaged in 2021 are underwater with only 3% having limited equity. That suggests that even if the market declines further, we're not going to enter a market where prices drop 35% across the board like we saw in 2008. Now, personally, as someone who's worked full-time in the real estate market for now 14 years, I would not be surprised if home prices did end up dropping between 5 to 10%. I wouldn't be surprised if highly euphoric markets saw a drop of 20 to 25% only because they've gone up so much so quickly. But, I don't think this points to a cataclysmic crash to any degree. And if anything happens, I think it's going to be a lot more mild. The way I see it, I think this is going to lead to some pretty good buying opportunities throughout the next year. And I'm keeping some cash on the sidelines to buy a commercial office or warehouse space whenever a good deal comes up, if one comes up. I'm hoping I could find one, but we'll see. For everybody else though, if you're a buyer, just be patient and shop around your mortgage rates because

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed