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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Dec 5, 2018, at 13:45 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“and finally over the long term and that property is likely to go up in value”
Watch at 13:45How To Invest in 2026 (How ANYONE can be RICH)
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band

Reading when said

4.65%

Dec 5, 2018

Reading at close

3.53%

Dec 5, 2019

Change

−1.12 pp

House prices stood at 4.65% at the start of the window and 3.53% at Dec 5, 2019, a change of −1.12 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Within band

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.65%4.28%Jan 4, 2019−0.37 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.65%3.66%Mar 5, 2019−0.98 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.65%3.04%Jun 3, 2019−1.60 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.65%3.53%Dec 5, 2019−1.12 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct4.65%18.87%Dec 4, 2021+14.22 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.65%5.43%Dec 4, 2023+0.78 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 4.65% at the start of the window and 4.28% at Jan 4, 2019, a change of −0.37 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 4.65% at the start of the window and 3.66% at Mar 5, 2019, a change of −0.98 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 4.65% at the start of the window and 3.04% at Jun 3, 2019, a change of −1.60 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 4.65% at the start of the window and 3.53% at Dec 5, 2019, a change of −1.12 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 4.65% at the start of the window and 18.87% at Dec 4, 2021, a change of +14.22 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 4.65% at the start of the window and 5.43% at Dec 4, 2023, a change of +0.78 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

your investment which means that every month when rent is paid you get a check in your pocket second because of all of the great tax deductions of real estate - all of that money that you're going to be making chances are is going to be yours completely tax-free third you're able to borrow most of the money you need to invest in real estate and then slowly pay that off over a long time fourth you're also building up equity in the property as you're paying down the loan and then eventually after fifteen to thirty years you're gonna own that property outright and finally over the long term and that property is likely to go up in value that's why it's no surprise that 90% of the world's millionaires are created through investing in real estate and I am absolutely no exception to this if you're interested in investing in real estate I'm not gonna spend too much time on that here because my entire channel is dedicated pretty much to investing in real estate I have Moulton playlist you can look through or just type in the YouTube search bar real estate investing gram and you'll be able to see all my real estate investing videos I easily have like 30 or 40 or 50 of them on my channel so feel

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed