Graham Stephan: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

Said on Mar 21, 2018, at 9:34 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I should be able to see about a hundred thousand dollars in extra appreciation probably over the next three years or so”
Watch at 9:3427 Years Old: Should I buy a House or a Lamborghini?
PredictionHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figuresby Mar 20, 2021
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

Why: Stated deadline

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a local market, which this rule does not measure.

What was said around it

in value realistically at this point the best-case scenario is I find a great property that breaks even cash flow wise then hopefully it can end up making a little bit of equity at the very beginning when I buy it by renovating it and then hold it and realistically it's probably gonna take me four to five years to begin really seeing some cash flow from it as rents just increase around that area that I'm buying in but on the flip side of that I should be making about six hundred dollars a month in equity from paying down the loan and I should be able to see about a hundred thousand dollars in extra appreciation probably over the next three years or so and with that I'd be getting a great property in a really up-and-coming area of Los Angeles with a lot of development going around and the real potential in this is probably about five to ten years from now as the entire area just transforms and improves and by the way for anyone watching who's in Los Angeles the areas I really believe in East Hollywood West Adams Jefferson Park and Baldwin Hills so there you go go and make some money but given that hypothetically speaking there's nothing really stopping me from waiting a year year and

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed