What was said
“Anyway, this scenario ends with the S&P 500 falling 38% to roughly 3,500, a level that we've not seen since before ChatGPT launched. Home prices fall in all major metros.”Watch at 5:35The AI Collapse Is MUCH Worse Than You Think
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: House prices will fall
Said on Feb 27, 2026, at 5:35 in the video.
The window it was checked over
This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
white-collar workers see a reduction of income or lose their job, they scale back. If they have to sell their home and everyone has to sell the exact same time, home prices begin to fall. If they owe more on the home than what the home is worth, they end up going into foreclosure if they're not able to bridge the gap. And if that sounds crazy, here's a line that really stuck out to me. In 2008, the loans were bad on day one. In 2028, the loans were good on day one, the world just changed after the loans were written. Anyway, this scenario ends with the S&P 500 falling 38% to roughly 3,500, a level that we've not seen since before ChatGPT launched. Home prices fall in all major metros. And the scariest part is that some of the world's smartest people already believe that some of this has begun to happen today. So, in terms of what this means for you and how this might realistically play out, here's what you came for. Although before we go into that, I got to say it's worth zooming out and taking a look at what's happening throughout the markets because nothing moves in a straight line anymore. On top of that, your cash is losing purchasing power, prices are going up, and if you don't take steps
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on House prices
Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise
“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”
Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year
Pending
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”
Jul 22, 2026
Not scored
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Relayed
Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”
Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Not verifiable
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Relayed
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Relayed