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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Aug 16, 2023, at 11:09 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“this is why it's been my opinion for the last few years that nominal prices may still go up even though real returns are slowing down”
Watch at 11:09The Housing Market Is Getting Destroyed
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band

Reading when said

2.55%

Aug 16, 2023

Reading at close

4.34%

Aug 15, 2024

Change

+1.79 pp

House prices stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 4.34% at Aug 15, 2024, a change of +1.79 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Within band

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.55%3.96%Sep 15, 2023+1.41 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.55%5%Nov 14, 2023+2.45 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.55%6.48%Feb 12, 2024+3.94 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.55%4.34%Aug 15, 2024+1.79 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.55%2.04%Aug 15, 2026−0.51 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 14, 2028——
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 3.96% at Sep 15, 2023, a change of +1.41 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 5.00% at Nov 14, 2023, a change of +2.45 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 6.48% at Feb 12, 2024, a change of +3.94 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 4.34% at Aug 15, 2024, a change of +1.79 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 2.04% at Aug 15, 2026, a change of −0.51 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 14, 2028.

What was said around it

sounds confusing just consider this hypothetically if home prices increased by 5% but inflation was 6% that kind of means you still lost 1% plus if we begin to look at the actual data it's quite interesting because home prices were previously up 10.9% year-over-year during a time where inflation was 99.1% this meant that home prices only increased 1.8% above inflation which is pretty much right in line with historical averages all of that is to say that this is why inflation needs to be considered when you talk about home prices and this is why it's been my opinion for the last few years that nominal prices may still go up even though real returns are slowing down this is why the market is largely resisted to selloff and why it's still possible for home prices to go even higher even though it kind of makes no sense of course there is also the caveat that real estate is very much location dependent and every single Market is going to be different that's why I believe that if you're going to be buying a home my personal take is to only buy something that you intend on keeping for at least 7 to 10 years without maxing out your budget with something that you could afford if you could stick within

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed