Graham Stephan: a call with no clear direction

Said on Jul 22, 2026, at 14:31 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”
Watch at 14:31WTF Is Happening To The Housing Market?!
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Not scored

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

What was said around it

that's the hope. So in terms of what I actually think about this and then most importantly what you could do about all this starting today to give yourself the best chance possible of coming out ahead here is what you came for. Overall I tend to think that Morgan Stanley and Harvard are correct. Really from all the research that's out there unless we see a massive economic depression that wipes everybody out that no one sees coming it's unlikely that housing prices are going to be crashing anytime soon. Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck but that doesn't mean that everyone should just give up. So in terms of how to approach this going forward number one don't wait for a housing crash. Now that's not to say that markets can't take because some markets absolutely will fall in price but it is to say that you shouldn't be waiting for a 30% crash that'll probably never happen. Instead if the numbers work for you today on a home that you could comfortably afford even if your income drops that you intend on keeping for at least 7 to 10 years

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