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Graham Stephan: House prices will rise

Said on Jun 25, 2018, at 8:02 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“my pure unbiased prediction here all things considered is that I think we're still going to see upward pressure on real estate prices even as interest rates increase”
Watch at 8:02Are we about to see a DROP in Real Estate Prices?
PredictionHouse priceswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

6.17%

Jun 25, 2018

Reading at close

3.04%

Jun 25, 2019

Change

−3.13 pp

House prices stood at 6.17% at the start of the window and 3.04% at Jun 25, 2019, a change of −3.13 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.17%5.79%Jul 25, 2018−0.38 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.17%5.28%Sep 23, 2018−0.89 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.17%4.65%Dec 22, 2018−1.52 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.17%3.04%Jun 25, 2019−3.13 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.17%18.67%Jun 24, 2021+12.50 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.17%0.02%Jun 24, 2023−6.15 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 6.17% at the start of the window and 5.79% at Jul 25, 2018, a change of −0.38 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 6.17% at the start of the window and 5.28% at Sep 23, 2018, a change of −0.89 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 6.17% at the start of the window and 4.65% at Dec 22, 2018, a change of −1.52 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 6.17% at the start of the window and 3.04% at Jun 25, 2019, a change of −3.13 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 6.17% at the start of the window and 18.67% at Jun 24, 2021, a change of +12.50 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 6.17% at the start of the window and 0.02% at Jun 24, 2023, a change of −6.15 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

that same property just to get more expensive to own rising rates to me mean that previously cash flowing properties that made sense at a four percent interest rate are now actually losing money when interest rates are closer to five percent and that same property just cost more expensive to own even though in theory property values should go down to compensate for the extra cost of owning that property but in reality the lack of supply is still keeping property values going up and still selling at a record rate my pure unbiased prediction here all things considered is that I think we're still going to see upward pressure on real estate prices even as interest rates increase now with that said local market conditions will obviously have a much greater effect than interest rates alone and if you're in a city where they're starting to over develop then that could have a negative impact on real estate prices much more than just rising interest rates alone this is why I tend to believe we're seeing a slowdown of real estate in New York as people just tend to over develop these areas and get a little ahead of the market it's not so much the interest rates are going up it's just that there's

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed