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Graham Stephan: House prices will fall

Said on Mar 19, 2021, at 12:46 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I wouldn't be surprised if we just saw a gradual slow down in prices over time.”
Watch at 12:46How The Housing Crash Will Happen
PredictionHouse priceswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

13.35%

Mar 19, 2021

Reading at close

20.87%

Mar 19, 2022

Change

+7.52 pp

House prices stood at 13.35% at the start of the window and 20.87% at Mar 19, 2022, a change of +7.52 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band13.35%14.38%Apr 18, 2021+1.04 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect13.35%18.67%Jun 17, 2021+5.32 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect13.35%19.57%Sep 15, 2021+6.22 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect13.35%20.87%Mar 19, 2022+7.52 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.35%6.59%Mar 18, 2024−6.76 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct13.35%0.69%Mar 18, 2026−12.66 pp—
Why: 30 days

House prices stood at 13.35% at the start of the window and 14.38% at Apr 18, 2021, a change of +1.04 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

House prices stood at 13.35% at the start of the window and 18.67% at Jun 17, 2021, a change of +5.32 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

House prices stood at 13.35% at the start of the window and 19.57% at Sep 15, 2021, a change of +6.22 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

House prices stood at 13.35% at the start of the window and 20.87% at Mar 19, 2022, a change of +7.52 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

House prices stood at 13.35% at the start of the window and 6.59% at Mar 18, 2024, a change of −6.76 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

House prices stood at 13.35% at the start of the window and 0.69% at Mar 18, 2026, a change of −12.66 pp (CSUSHPINSA, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 2.0 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

not to say that prices will not go down because certainly there will be times where everything slows down and values drop. But instead, it's a lot more important to make sure that you buy a home that you could afford, that you lock in an interest rate for as long as you can. You ideally get that mortgage for 30 years and then from there, you just hang on to it for as long as you can. I highly doubt we would see a crash as severe as 1929 or 2008, which are both events that were highly concentrated and directly hit the real estate market. And really instead, I wouldn't be surprised if we just saw a gradual slow down in prices over time. Even though increasing home prices are beginning to worry people, as long as you buy a home that you could afford, with the intention of holding it 8 to 10 years, you should be fine and that should be long enough to ride through any short-term fluctuations in price. And really most importantly from all of this, the best thing that you could do is make sure to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. So with that said, you guys, thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it. As always, make sure to destroy the like button, subscribe button,

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise

“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”

Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”

Jul 22, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”

Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”

Jul 15, 2026

Relayed