Said on May 21, 2026, at 11:54 in the video.
“for anyone waiting for housing to get more affordable, you might be waiting a little longer.”The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
This series is not charted here until its publisher's terms for reusing it are confirmed. Each verdict still cites the figures it was judged on.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED
The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
Look, here's the math that most people don't consider. When interest rates rise, future profits become worth less in today's dollars. That means high multiple tech stocks, AI plays, speculative names, anything priced on earnings years from now gets repriced lower because today's rates pay more. Third, housing stays frozen. Keep in mind that mortgage rates are already hitting multi-decade highs. Warsh's plan to reduce the Fed's balance sheet includes selling off the mortgage-backed securities, which are literally the assets that back home loans. So, for anyone waiting for housing to get more affordable, you might be waiting a little longer. Leading us to fourth, the government loses. The fact is higher Treasury yields means more interest on the $39 trillion national debt. Bigger interest payments mean bigger deficits. Bigger deficits mean more borrowing, which means higher interest rates, which means even higher deficits. However, not everything is doom and gloom, and there's also some very clear winners from this. And the biggest winners in my eyes are savers. In this case, if you have money sitting in a high-yield savings account, a CD, or you go and buy Treasuries short-term, this
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Graham StephanHouse priceswill rise
“And that means that home prices in those markets continue going higher.”
Aug 10, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“Instead the market is just quietly resetting to a much higher and much more expensive new normal and everyone who's waiting it out to see 2019 prices again is unfortunately probably out of luck”
Jul 22, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Graham StephanHouse prices— not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“the Northeast and Midwest are still hitting record highs, including Hartford, Connecticut, which is up 25% from its 2022 peak. Well, the pandemic boom towns across Texas, Florida, and the Mountain West keep falling.”
Jul 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying Reuters poll of analysts: House prices — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“But, a Reuters poll of analysts expects prices to fall another 4% this year before maybe stabilizing in 2027.”
Jul 15, 2026